Estimate what fraction of capital the classic Kelly formula implies from your win rate and average win versus average loss, then compare half- and quarter-Kelly.
Kelly uses your edge (win probability and payoff ratio) to suggest position sizing in a simplified model. It assumes stable probabilities and does not know your risk tolerance or real-world constraints.
Formula used: fraction equals win probability minus (1 minus win probability) divided by (average win divided by average loss). Negative values mean the edge is negative at those inputs.
Reward-to-risk from entry, stop, and target.
Units and notional from account risk and stop distance.
Dollar and percent P/L for long or short.
Average $ per trade from wins, losses, and sizes.
Growth with APR, time, and optional monthly savings.
Double time from a rate, or rate to double in N years.
Project nest egg from savings, years, and return.