Combine how often you win with how big wins and losses are, expectancy is the average dollars per trade before fees.
Win rate alone does not determine if a strategy is profitable: a few large losses can outweigh many small wins. Expectancy captures that trade-off in one number.
Enter averages from your journal or backtest. Use the same definition of a trade throughout; exclude fees here if your averages are gross.
Based on 100 trades. Formula: (win rate × avg win) − ((1 − win rate) × avg loss).
Reward-to-risk from entry, stop, and target.
Units and notional from account risk and stop distance.
Dollar and percent P/L for long or short.
Full, half, and quarter Kelly from edge estimates.
Growth with APR, time, and optional monthly savings.
Double time from a rate, or rate to double in N years.
Project nest egg from savings, years, and return.